Land supply for private homes to raise in first half of 2024

The land supply for private housing will be increased for the first half 2024. This includes a pilot site for serviced apartments for long stays in One-North as well as a first private housing site at Bayshore Precinct.

The 10 sites confirmed on the list, and the nine sites in the reserve list, of the Government Land Sales programme (GLS), announced on 6 December, will result in 8,910 residential units for private use, 107.750 sq m of gross floor area (GFA), of commercial space, and 530 rooms of hotel accommodation.

This represents a 5.6% increase from the 5,160 residential units that were built in the second half 2023.

According to the Ministry of National Development, the confirmed list supply will bring the total pipeline of private housing, including ECs, to approximately 59,100 homes.

The total includes 41,900 units that have been approved for planning and 17,200 units from GLS and collective sale sites which are not planning-approved.

The market observers are expecting a further diluting of bids by developers, with 10 list sites confirmed for release in 2024’s first half.

Residential sites, excluding ECs, received on average 5.2 bids for each site during the first half 2022. This has decreased to 3.7 bids in the second half 2023.

In the face of rising interest rates and uncertainty in the market, an increase in land availability should be able to moderate and reduce bids from developers and their appetite for GLS sites.

Developers who would have otherwise had to resort to the market of collective sales for prime plots could find several sites that are being offered appealing.

Analysts noted that the Media Circle site at one-north in One-North, with its 515 serviced apartment units, was the only full-length serviced apartment site confirmed for the first half 2024.

On Dec 4, two such sites, Upper Thomson Road and Zion Road, were launched as part of the GLS second-half programme 2023. These included a mixture of residential and long stay units.

Developers do not need to sell the entire project in five years for them to receive the Additional Buyer Stamp Duty (ABSD).

Developers can also develop an additional 3,460 housing units if there is a demand for them. The government will make nine sites available on a reserve list.

The Continuum Pricing

List includes six residential sites including two ECs with 855 units, and one in River Valley Green which can produce 220 long-stay apartments. Also included are a commercial site, a white site allowing for varying uses, and 530 hotel rooms on 540 hotel sites.

MND stated that the release of the Bayshore Estate development will be accelerated by the inclusion of the Bayshore Road site on the Reserve List.

The new estate, which will cover 60ha, will consist of 10,000 homes (around 3,000 HDB flats and 7,000 private homes) and sit on land that was reclaimed between Upper East Coast Road & East Coast Parkway.

The Bayshore Road site and the River Valley Green Parcel B are “most fascinating” and have a high chance of being activated.

The developers will not be exposed to ABSD if a portion of the GFA is allocated for serviced apartments for long-term stays.

The Bayshore MRT is expected to be built in the near future, so developers will try to gain an advantage by being the first to move.

The competition on the market could be fierce in future, with approximately 3,000 homes being built in this precinct.

The Bayshore Road site, which is adjacent to the Long Island reclamation along Singapore’s east coast, will attract developers due to the fact that the two previous GLS tenders for Bayshore, now The Bayshore, and Costa Del Sol, were over 20 years ago.

Analysts expect many bids on the one EC site at Jalan Loyang in Pasir Ris. These hybrid private homes, which are cheaper, attract first-time buyers and upgraders.

The last EC launch Sea Horizon took place in 2013, so there should be a pent up demand in Pasir Ris.

Sites in Holland Drive and De Souza Avenue that were added to the confirmed list for the first half of 2024 from the reserve list for the second half of 2023 should also attract a lot interest.

Holland Drive’s land value will likely exceed $1 billion based on its land size and plot ratio. This could attract consortiums to make joint bids.

Experts predict demand for Margaret Drive and Tampines Street plots, as these are in the popular residential areas of Queenstown and Tampines.

The Margaret Drive (Margaret Ville), which was sold in 2016, attracted 14 bids. The Tampines development will be a mixed-use project next to Tampines West MRT. A future mall is likely to be supported by the growing population of residential areas.